Better visibility into procurement, more accurate and reliable data for analytics, and increased trust among all participants in your supply chain network are some of the benefits of adding blockchain to your infrastructure. But how much will it disrupt your current way of doing business? You may be understandably wary about the costs and potential turmoil behind yet another piece of technology.
It’s important to clarify that the blockchain isn’t merely a prerequisite piece of software to buy. As an integrative technology, its underlying logic and processes force data to become synchronized—and that allows companies to capture the broad benefits I described in Part 2 of this series. So don’t think of it as a hurdle or just another program to learn that needs to be integrated into your current system. It’s actually the opposite: a solution to your current fragmented infrastructure.
Plugging into your existing infrastructure
The blockchain essentially functions as a layer supplementing your existing enterprise resource planning (ERP) software. You can still see your existing user interface and business process. But now, when you look at inventory, you see everyone else’s alongside your own. And instead of a placeholder of a price, the actual price based on the consumption of your supply chain network is available.
Done properly, a blockchain installation slots into your workflow without disruption, so it can feel like you’re not really leaving your existing infrastructure. The installation will likely not be as simple as a “one-size-fits-all” approach; it’s more like three sizes, depending on your current infrastructure and the smaller partners you may need to set up.
To accommodate your other partners, the blockchain can be built into a Web interface to use, also relying on electronic data interchange (EDI) connectors. These connectors take the messages from disparate systems—such as when inventory departs one warehouse and ends up in another that operates under a different platform—and bring them together.
Professional services firms and software companies have made significant investments into developing blockchain capabilities and resources, with the goal of making the process as seamless as possible. For instance, EY recently introduced EY Ops Chain, our in-house suite of applications and services built on open-source blockchain components. The result is that, as an enterprise IT organization, you increasingly have more options to choose from, with your convenience paramount.
How blockchain works in real life: the ROI
What does adding blockchain capabilities look like in the real world instead of just the abstract? EY helped a global manufacturer leverage blockchain technology in its existing environment to solve compliance issues for its procurement/direct-buy processes. These issues stemmed from third-party, pass-through pricing from its suppliers to contract manufacturers, in which audits revealed that the correct pricing was not used, requiring time-consuming reconciliation efforts.
We conducted a proof of concept demonstrating the features required to manage a contract manufacturer supply chain under a blockchain. Then it was a matter of expanding it across their network, reducing value leakage and eliminating the costly price verification process that was eating into the savings under negotiated pricing agreements.
It’s possible that cost savings just from reduced auditing could cover your entire blockchain investment—but you’re also getting so much more. In an increasingly globalized world, with the speed of business accelerating and data swirling all around us, it’s worth exploring your blockchain options with a trusted advisor.
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About Paul Brody
Paul Brody is global innovation blockchain leader at EY. Paul is responsible for driving EY’s initiatives and investments in blockchain, playing a dual role as global innovation blockchain leader as well the Americas strategy leader for the technology sector. He has extensive experience in the areas of IoT, supply chain, and operations and business strategy.
Even when governmental and non-governmental organizations are swift to react when disaster strikes, humanitarian efforts are often harmed by a lack of transparency among different relief providers.
Blockchain is able to quickly and easily spin up an independent system of record that could be key to providing quicker, more effective help for people affected by an emergency.
In January 2010, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince, inducing one of the most dire humanitarian catastrophes of all time. Within 24 hours, more than 20 nations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) were on the move to provide disaster relief that ranged from recovery operations and medical support to distribution of food and water. Combining their efforts to work more efficiently, the relief parties each brought specific resources and know-how. Subsequently, however, the United Nations revealed that collaboration and efficiency were hindered by the absence of a common communication channel and the use of too many unstructured data sources, such as email and social media.
Imagine the following: The French, who contribute with medical support to a relief mission, want to bring doctors to a certain area of the island, but they have no idea how. Meanwhile, the U.S. has three nearby helicopters to offer. How can both sides immediately know that their requirements and offerings match?
Even when resources are available, there is currently no swift and reliable option to make the other parties aware of what is needed. Establishing a shared system of record can advance disaster response while also addressing challenges such as ownership of the system and data sovereignty of all involved.
Disaster relief requires partner interoperability
There can be no doubt that mankind has made amazing progress in terms of disaster aid. With partners from different nations and NGOs joining efforts, it is no longer up to one disaster-stricken country to cope with the fallout on their own. But operations that are executed by different parties require quick action entail challenges. Governmental organizations that are sent to disaster areas often involve defense forces who may be reluctant to provide insights into their systems of operation. Unfortunately, this reasonable reluctance to reveal sensitive data can lead to potentially life-saving information being delayed or inaccessible. The greatest strength of these joint efforts can also become their greatest weakness.
Employing federated systems is the traditional approach to multi-party operations. Their technological complexity makes them difficult to set up in situations where there is literally no time to lose. In addition, there are security risks involved that make partners hesitant to provide insights into their resource capacities. However, disaster situations call for the absolute transparency, seamless interoperability, and information exchange in real time among helping parties that only a distributed network can provide.
This is where blockchain comes in.
Creating trust, but also efficiency
Blockchain technology allows central systems of relief mission participants — for example, the UN, national humanitarian aid, NGOs, and others — to connect via a distributed network. For the involved parties, this means:
Distributed power: All parties are equally entitled and can continue to use their own resource planning system.
Partner interoperability: The blockchain provides a single source of truth for all operations that is updated in real time. Every party can access the transaction history.
Ad hoc capabilities: Parties can join or leave the network at any time.
Privacy: Parties keep their data sovereignty and don’t have to expose their resource capacities to other participants.
Getting back to the Haiti scenario, the French would enter a request for airlift by helicopter in the app that is broadcast to all mission participants via blockchain. All other parties could instantly see the request and react with a specific offer. The U.S. could then provide one of its three helicopters to be on site in 30 minutes.
By using a smart contract — a simple, open algorithm embedded in the blockchain, ensuring that the parties stick to commonly agreed rules — offers that match requests could automatically be accepted and help could be provided without delay. The history of the transactions would be securely saved to the blockchain.
With Facebook, Google, Netflix, Spotify, and precious few other platforms establishing a new monopoly on how the masses are informed and entertained, a Big Media fit for the Internet age has emerged.
The early promise of a decentralized web that gave artists and content creators their fair share did not materialize. Instead, it takes up to 170 Spotify streams for a right holder to receive their first penny. Facebook, driven by its insatiable lust for advertising revenue, barely pretends it cares about anything else anymore – including the creators who give life to the platform. That ruthlessness saw it grow into a $500 billion company as it also became America’s top news source. The big money continues to flow into a few hands, but now those of Silicon Valley technologists rather than the media moguls of old.
Those who kept faith in the web’s potential to decentralize media and empower creative communities came to need a fresh hope. They now have that hope in blockchain technology. Allow Don Tapscott, author of Blockchain Revolution, to define the dream: “What if there were not only an Internet of information, but an Internet of value? Some kind of vast, global, distributed ledger running on millions of computers and available to everybody, and where every kind of asset from money to music could be stored, moved, transacted, exchanged, and managed, all without powerful intermediaries.”
Tapscott is describing what could become Web 3.0 – a new kind of blockchain-based web infrastructure that gives us another shot at media decentralization and a better deal for content creators.
In a utopian vision of this blockchain web, people consume media in microtransactions using digital wallets and cryptocurrencies. The microtransactions – or tokens – switch hands only between consumer and creator, removing the power of centralized media platforms and the need for subscription or advertising-based business models. Think 1 cent to watch a short video, 0.2 cents to read an article, or 10 cents to watch a film – each micropayment self-executed by ‘smart contracts’ and the blockchain serving as a decentralized authority to ensure trust between buyer and seller.
“People who create value in the systems will get rewarded with tokens. People who participate in the systems spend the tokens,” explained Union Square Ventures managing partner Fred Wilson at Techonomy NYC in May. “It’s a native, elegant business model for community-powered systems.”
The monetization models of today’s Big Media platforms tend to be attention-driven, he said, and all our data is stored in someone else’s servers. “New technologies will emerge and fix those things. We’re going to have decentralized storage, decentralized compute, decentralized security.”
While it sounds fairer than today’s web, do we really want blockchain to turn browsing into a decentralized free-for-all? Centralization has its benefits, and as we’ve seen, people tend to flock to and enjoy using centralized services. Fortunately, there would be a place for successful media platforms on the new blockchain web, the key difference being that creative communities seeking the highest cut of profits would decide which. “It’s very disruptive to the attention-based business model, and there are going to be very, very large companies built from the ground up based on those business models,” said Wilson.
Some entrepreneurs are already set on getting the web of value up and running. Decent and SingularDTV are decentralized blockchain-powered content distribution networks. Veredictum.io wants to become the go-to blockchain network for the film and video industry.
Ujo Music and Monegraph are trying to do the same for music, as is Imogen Heap’s Mycelia. Incidentally, Spotify acquired blockchain startup Mediachain Labs in April, sensing the threat blockchain poses to its current subscription and advertising-based business model.
In the land of social media, Steemit pays users in cryptocurrency for posting content. The more engagement with a post, the more it earns. Yours works in a similar way, only using Bitcoin.
Despite the early promise, it’s going to take a lot for a universal web of value to become reality. Some already believe the New Big Media has cornered the web and become too big to fail. There is little pressure on the major platforms to abandon their current business models; the typical web user likes how Facebook, YouTube and Spotify work, and is in no rush to switch to services that better compensate creators.
Legislation would be the most direct route to enforcing a blockchain-powered web. There is already talk of governments intervening over Google and Facebook’s increasingly worrying level of control (70% of web traffic now goes through those two giants alone). Blockchain could factor into that discussion.
Yet, reengineering the web with policy is a deeply troubling suggestion. Ruling in favour of a new blockchain system could backfire, taking us even further from the dream of a web that discourages centralized power. Some entity or entities could come to own and manage the blockchain infrastructure; if it was profit-driven enterprises, creators could soon find themselves right back where they were: getting just a scrap of the cut, only now more efficiently fleeced. If it was governments, the web could descend into an Orwellian nightmare, deprived of the very creative competition the new system was trying to encourage.
Despite such dilemmas and challenges, those who want a better deal for artists and content creators are taking blockchain seriously. Chances are, the New Big Media is too. But that might not be enough, according to Wilson. “Somebody will create a new business model that is not attention-driven. They won’t be able to react to it quickly enough, and they will get disrupted.”
Businesses share something important with lions. When a lion captures and consumes its prey, only about 10% to 20% of the prey’s energy is directly transferred into the lion’s metabolism. The rest evaporates away, mostly as heat loss, according to research done in the 1940s by ecologist Raymond Lindeman.
Today, businesses do only about as well as the big cats. When you consider the energy required to manage, power, and move products and services, less than 20% goes directly into the typical product or service—what economists call aggregate efficiency (the ratio of potential work to the actual useful work that gets embedded into a product or service at the expense of the energy lost in moving products and services through all of the steps of their value chains). Aggregate efficiency is a key factor in determining productivity.
After making steady gains during much of the 20th century, businesses’ aggregate energy efficiency peaked in the 1980s and then stalled. Japan, home of the world’s most energy-efficient economy, has been skating along at or near 20% ever since. The U.S. economy, meanwhile, topped out at about 13% aggregate efficiency in the 1990s, according to research.
Why does this matter? Jeremy Rifkin says he knows why. Rifkin is an economic and social theorist, author, consultant, and lecturer at the Wharton School’s Executive Education program who believes that economies experience major increases in growth and productivity only when big shifts occur in three integrated infrastructure segments around the same time: communications, energy, and transportation.
But it’s only a matter of time before information technology blows all three wide open, says Rifkin. He envisions a new economic infrastructure based on digital integration of communications, energy, and transportation, riding atop an Internet of Things (IoT) platform that incorporates Big Data, analytics, and artificial intelligence. This platform will disrupt the world economy and bring dramatic levels of efficiency and productivity to businesses that take advantage of it,
Some economists consider Rifkin’s ideas controversial. And his vision of a new economic platform may be problematic—at least globally. It will require massive investments and unusually high levels of government, community, and private sector cooperation, all of which seem to be at depressingly low levels these days.
However, Rifkin has some influential adherents to his philosophy. He has advised three presidents of the European Commission—Romano Prodi, José Manuel Barroso, and the current president, Jean-Claude Juncker—as well as the European Parliament and numerous European Union (EU) heads of state, including Angela Merkel, on the ushering in of what he calls “a smart, green Third Industrial Revolution.” Rifkin is also advising the leadership of the People’s Republic of China on the build out and scale up of the “Internet Plus” Third Industrial Revolution infrastructure to usher in a sustainable low-carbon economy.
The internet has already shaken up one of the three major economic sectors: communications. Today it takes little more than a cell phone, an internet connection, and social media to publish a book or music video for free—what Rifkin calls zero marginal cost. The result has been a hollowing out of once-mighty media empires in just over 10 years. Much of what remains of their business models and revenues has been converted from physical (remember CDs and video stores?) to digital.
But we haven’t hit the trifecta yet. Transportation and energy have changed little since the middle of the last century, says Rifkin. That’s when superhighways reached their saturation point across the developed world and the internal-combustion engine came close to the limits of its potential on the roads, in the air, and at sea. “We have all these killer new technology products, but they’re being plugged into the same old infrastructure, and it’s not creating enough new business opportunities,” he says.
All that may be about to undergo a big shake-up, however. The digitalization of information on the IoT at near-zero marginal cost generates Big Data that can be mined with analytics to create algorithms and apps enabling ubiquitous networking. This digital transformation is beginning to have a big impact on the energy and transportation sectors. If that trend continues, we could see a metamorphosis in the economy and society not unlike previous industrial revolutions in history. And given the pace of technology change today, the shift could happen much faster than ever before.
The speed of change is dictated by the increase in digitalization of these three main sectors; expensive physical assets and processes are partially replaced by low-cost virtual ones. The cost efficiencies brought on by digitalization drive disruption in existing business models toward zero marginal cost, as we’ve already seen in entertainment and publishing. According to research company Gartner, when an industry gets to the point where digital drives at least 20% of revenues, you reach the tipping point.
“A clear pattern has emerged,” says Peter Sondergaard, executive vice president and head of research and advisory for Gartner. “Once digital revenues for a sector hit 20% of total revenue, the digital bloodbath begins,” he told the audience at Gartner’s annual 2017 IT Symposium/ITxpo, according to The Wall Street Journal. “No matter what industry you are in, 20% will be the point of no return.”
Communications is already there, and energy and transportation are heading down that path. If they hit the magic 20% mark, the impact will be felt not just within those industries but across all industries. After all, who doesn’t rely on energy and transportation to power their value chains?
The eye of the technology disruption hurricane has moved beyond communications and is heading toward … the rest of the economy.
That’s why businesses need to factor potentially massive business model disruptions into their plans for digital transformation today if they want to remain competitive with organizations in early adopter countries like China and Germany. China, for example, is already halfway through an US$88 billion upgrade to its state electricity grid that will enable renewable energy transmission around the country—all managed and moved digitally, according to an article in The Economist magazine. And it is competing with the United States for leadership in self-driving vehicles, which will shift the transportation process and revenue streams heavily to digital, according to an article in Wired magazine.
Once China’s and Germany’s renewables and driverless infrastructures are in place, the only additional costs are management and maintenance. That could bring businesses in these countries dramatic cost savings over those that still rely on fossil fuels and nuclear energy to power their supply chains and logistics. “Once you pay the fixed costs of renewables, the marginal costs are near zero,” says Rifkin. “The sun and wind haven’t sent us invoices yet.”
In other words, zero marginal cost has become a zero-sum game.
To understand why that is, consider the major industrial revolutions in history, writes Rifkin in his books, The Zero Marginal Cost Society and The Third Industrial Revolution. The first major shift occurred in the 19th century when cheap, abundant coal provided an efficient new source of power (steam) for manufacturing and enabled the creation of a vast railway transportation network. Meanwhile, the telegraph gave the world near-instant communication over a globally connected network.
The second big change occurred at the beginning of the 20th century, when inexpensive oil began to displace coal and gave rise to a much more flexible new transportation network of cars and trucks. Telephones, radios, and televisions had a similar impact on communications.
Breaking Down the Walls Between Sectors
Now, according to Rifkin, we’re poised for the third big shift. The eye of the technology disruption hurricane has moved beyond communications and is heading toward—or as publishing and entertainment executives might warn, coming for—the rest of the economy. With its assemblage of global internet and cellular network connectivity and ever-smaller and more powerful sensors, the IoT, along with Big Data analytics and artificial intelligence, is breaking down the economic walls that have protected the energy and transportation sectors for the past 50 years.
Daimler is now among the first movers in transitioning into a digitalized mobility internet. The company has equipped nearly 400,000 of its trucks with external sensors, transforming the vehicles into mobile Big Data centers. The sensors are picking up real-time Big Data on weather conditions, traffic flows, and warehouse availability. Daimler plans to establish collaborations with thousands of companies, providing them with Big Data and analytics that can help dramatically increase their aggregate efficiency and productivity in shipping goods across their value chains. The Daimler trucks are autonomous and capable of establishing platoons of multiple trucks driving across highways.
It won’t be long before vehicles that navigate the more complex transportation infrastructures around the world begin to think for themselves. Autonomous vehicles will bring massive economic disruption to transportation and logistics thanks to new aggregate efficiencies. Without the cost of having a human at the wheel, autonomous cars could achieve a shared cost per mile below that of owned vehicles by as early as 2030, according to research from financial services company Morgan Stanley.
The transition is getting a push from governments pledging to give up their addiction to cars powered by combustion engines. Great Britain, France, India, and Norway are seeking to go all electric as early as 2025 and by 2040 at the latest.
The Final Piece of the Transition
Considering that automobiles account for 47% of petroleum consumption in the United States alone—more than twice the amount used for generators and heating for homes and businesses, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration—Rifkin argues that the shift to autonomous electric vehicles could provide the momentum needed to upend the final pillar of the economic platform: energy. Though energy has gone through three major disruptions over the past 150 years, from coal to oil to natural gas—each causing massive teardowns and rebuilds of infrastructure—the underlying economic model has remained constant: highly concentrated and easily accessible fossil fuels and highly centralized, vertically integrated, and enormous (and enormously powerful) energy and utility companies.
Now, according to Rifkin, the “Third Industrial Revolution Internet of Things infrastructure” is on course to disrupt all of it. It’s neither centralized nor vertically integrated; instead, it’s distributed and networked. And that fits perfectly with the commercial evolution of two energy sources that, until the efficiencies of the IoT came along, made no sense for large-scale energy production: the sun and the wind.
But the IoT gives power utilities the means to harness these batches together and to account for variable energy flows. Sensors on solar panels and wind turbines, along with intelligent meters and a smart grid based on the internet, manage a new, two-way flow of energy to and from the grid.
Today, fossil fuel–based power plants need to kick in extra energy if insufficient energy is collected from the sun and wind. But industrial-strength batteries and hydrogen fuel cells are beginning to take their place by storing large reservoirs of reserve power for rainy or windless days. In addition, electric vehicles will be able to send some of their stored energy to the digitalized energy internet during peak use. Demand for ever-more efficient cell phone and vehicle batteries is helping push the evolution of batteries along, but batteries will need to get a lot better if renewables are to completely replace fossil fuel energy generation.
Meanwhile, silicon-based solar cells have not yet approached their limits of efficiency. They have their own version of computing’s Moore’s Law called Swanson’s Law. According to data from research company Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), Swanson’s Law means that for each doubling of global solar panel manufacturing capacity, the price falls by 28%, from $76 per watt in 1977 to $0.41 in 2016. (Wind power is on a similar plunging exponential cost curve, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy.)
Thanks to the plummeting solar price, by 2028, the cost of building and operating new sun-based generation capacity will drop below the cost of running existing fossil power plants, according to BNEF. “One of the surprising things in this year’s forecast,” says Seb Henbest, lead author of BNEF’s annual long-term forecast, the New Energy Outlook, “is that the crossover points in the economics of new and old technologies are happening much sooner than we thought last year … and those were all happening a bit sooner than we thought the year before. There’s this sense that it’s not some distant risk or distant opportunity. A lot of these realities are rushing toward us.”
The conclusion, he says, is irrefutable. “We can see the data and when we map that forward with conservative assumptions, these technologies just get cheaper than everything else.”
The smart money, then—72% of total new power generation capacity investment worldwide by 2040—will go to renewable energy, according to BNEF. The firm’s research also suggests that there’s more room in Swanson’s Law along the way, with solar prices expected to drop another 66% by 2040.
Another factor could push the economic shift to renewables even faster. Just as computers transitioned from being strictly corporate infrastructure to becoming consumer products with the invention of the PC in the 1980s, ultimately causing a dramatic increase in corporate IT investments, energy generation has also made the transition to the consumer side.
Thanks to future tech media star Elon Musk, consumers can go to his Tesla Energy company website and order tempered glass solar panels that look like chic, designer versions of old-fashioned roof shingles. Models that look like slate or a curved, terracotta-colored, ceramic-style glass that will make roofs look like those of Tuscan country villas, are promised soon. Consumers can also buy a sleek-looking battery called a Powerwall to store energy from the roof.
The combination of solar panels, batteries, and smart meters transforms homeowners from passive consumers of energy into active producers and traders who can choose to take energy from the grid during off-peak hours, when some utilities offer discounts, and sell energy back to the grid during periods when prices are higher. And new blockchain applications promise to accelerate the shift to an energy market that is laterally integrated rather than vertically integrated as it is now. Consumers like their newfound sense of control, according to Henbest. “Energy’s never been an interesting consumer decision before and suddenly it is,” he says.
As the price of solar equipment continues to drop, homes, offices, and factories will become like nodes on a computer network. And if promising new solar cell technologies, such as organic polymers, small molecules, and inorganic compounds, supplant silicon, which is not nearly as efficient with sunlight as it is with ones and zeroes, solar receivers could become embedded into windows and building compounds. Solar production could move off the roof and become integrated into the external facades of homes and office buildings, making nearly every edifice in town a node.
The big question, of course, is how quickly those nodes will become linked together—if, say doubters, they become linked at all. As we learned from Metcalfe’s Law, the value of a network is proportional to its number of connected users.
The Will Determines the Way
Right now, the network is limited. Wind and solar account for just 5% of global energy production today, according to Bloomberg.
But, says Rifkin, technology exists that could enable the network to grow exponentially. We are seeing the beginnings of a digital energy network, which uses a combination of the IoT, Big Data, analytics, and artificial intelligence to manage distributed energy sources, such as solar and wind power from homes and businesses.
As nodes on this network, consumers and businesses could take a more active role in energy production, management, and efficiency, according to Rifkin. Utilities, in turn, could transition from simply transmitting power and maintaining power plants and lines to managing the flow to and from many different energy nodes; selling and maintaining smart home energy management products; and monitoring and maintaining solar panels and wind turbines. By analyzing energy use in the network, utilities could create algorithms that automatically smooth the flow of renewables. Consumers and businesses, meanwhile, would not have to worry about connecting their wind and solar assets to the grid and keeping them up and running; utilities could take on those tasks more efficiently.
Already in Germany, two utility companies, E.ON and RWE, have each split their businesses into legacy fossil and nuclear fuel companies and new services companies based on distributed generation from renewables, new technologies, and digitalization.
The reason is simple: it’s about survival. As fossil fuel generation winds down, the utilities need a new business model to make up for lost revenue. Due to Germany’s population density, “the utilities realize that they won’t ever have access to enough land to scale renewables themselves,” says Rifkin. “So they are starting service companies to link together all the different communities that are building solar and wind and are managing energy flows for them and for their customers, doing their analytics, and managing their Big Data. That’s how they will make more money while selling less energy in the future.”
The digital energy internet is already starting out in pockets and at different levels of intensity around the world, depending on a combination of citizen support, utility company investments, governmental power, and economic incentives.
China and some countries within the EU, such as Germany and France, are the most likely leaders in the transition toward a renewable, energy-based infrastructure because they have been able to align the government and private sectors in long-term energy planning. In the EU for example, wind has already overtaken coal as the second largest form of power capacity behind natural gas, according to an article in TheGuardian newspaper. Indeed, Rifkin has been working with China, the EU, and governments, communities, and utilities in Northern France, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg to begin building these new internets.
Hauts-de-France, a region that borders the English Channel and Belgium and has one of the highest poverty rates in France, enlisted Rifkin to develop a plan to lift it out of its downward spiral of shuttered factories and abandoned coal mines. In collaboration with a diverse group of CEOs, politicians, teachers, scientists, and others, it developed Rev3, a plan to put people to work building a renewable energy network, according to an article in Vice.
Today, more than 1,000 Rev3 projects are underway, encompassing everything from residential windmills made from local linen to a fully electric car–sharing system. Rev3 has received financial support from the European Investment Bank and a handful of private investment funds, and startups have benefited from crowdfunding mechanisms sponsored by Rev3. Today, 90% of new energy in the region is renewable and 1,500 new jobs have been created in the wind energy sector alone.
Meanwhile, thanks in part to generous government financial support, Germany is already producing 35% of its energy from renewables, according to an article in TheIndependent, and there is near unanimous citizen support (95%, according to a recent government poll) for its expansion.
If renewables are to move forward …, it must come from the ability to make green, not act green.
If renewable energy is to move forward in other areas of the world that don’t enjoy such strong economic and political support, however, it must come from the ability to make green, not act green.
Not everyone agrees that renewables will produce cost savings sufficient to cause widespread cost disruption anytime soon. A recent forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that in 2040, oil, natural gas, and coal will still be the planet’s major electricity producers, powering 77% of worldwide production, while renewables such as wind, solar, and biofuels will account for just 15%.
Skeptics also say that renewables’ complex management needs, combined with the need to store reserve power, will make them less economical than fossil fuels through at least 2035. “All advanced economies demand full-time electricity,” Benjamin Sporton, chief executive officer of the World Coal Association told Bloomberg. “Wind and solar can only generate part-time, intermittent electricity. While some renewable technologies have achieved significant cost reductions in recent years, it’s important to look at total system costs.”
On the other hand, there are many areas of the world where distributed, decentralized, renewable power generation already makes more sense than a centralized fossil fuel–powered grid. More than 20% of Indians in far flung areas of the country have no access to power today, according to an article in TheGuardian. Locally owned and managed solar and wind farms are the most economical way forward. The same is true in other developing countries, such as Afghanistan, where rugged terrain, war, and tribal territorialism make a centralized grid an easy target, and mountainous Costa Rica, where strong winds and rivers have pushed the country to near 100% renewable energy, according to TheGuardian.
The Light and the Darknet
Even if all the different IoT-enabled economic platforms become financially advantageous, there is another concern that could disrupt progress and potentially cause widespread disaster once the new platforms are up and running: hacking. Poorly secured IoT sensors have allowed hackers to take over everything from Wi-Fi enabled Barbie dolls to Jeep Cherokees, according to an article in Wired magazine.
Humans may be lousy drivers, but at least we can’t be hacked (yet). And while the grid may be prone to outages, it is tightly controlled, has few access points for hackers, and is physically separated from the Wild West of the internet.
If our transportation and energy networks join the fray, however, every sensor, from those in the steering system on vehicles to grid-connected toasters, becomes as vulnerable as a credit card number. Fake news and election hacking are bad enough, but what about fake drivers or fake energy? Now we’re talking dangerous disruptions and putting millions of people in harm’s way.
The only answer, according to Rifkin, is for businesses and governments to start taking the hacking threat much more seriously than they do today and to begin pouring money into research and technologies for making the internet less vulnerable. That means establishing “a fully distributed, redundant, and resilient digital infrastructure less vulnerable to the kind of disruptions experienced by Second Industrial Revolution–centralized communication systems and power grids that are increasingly subject to climate change, disasters, cybercrime, and cyberterrorism,” he says. “The ability of neighborhoods and communities to go off centralized grids during crises and re-aggregate in locally decentralized networks is the key to advancing societal security in the digital era,” he adds.
Start Looking Ahead
Until today, digital transformation has come mainly through the networking and communications efficiencies made possible by the internet. Airbnb thrives because web communications make it possible to create virtual trust markets that allow people to feel safe about swapping their most private spaces with one another.
But now these same efficiencies are coming to two other areas that have never been considered core to business strategy. That’s why businesses need to begin managing energy and transportation as key elements of their digital transformation portfolios.
Microsoft, for example, formed a senior energy team to develop an energy strategy to mitigate risk from fluctuating energy prices and increasing demands from customers to reduce carbon emissions, according to an article in Harvard Business Review. “Energy has become a C-suite issue,” Rob Bernard, Microsoft’s top environmental and sustainability executive told the magazine. “The CFO and president are now actively involved in our energy road map.”
As Daimler’s experience shows, driverless vehicles will push autonomous transportation and automated logistics up the strategic agenda within the next few years. Boston Consulting Group predicts that the driverless vehicle market will hit $42 billion by 2025. If that happens, it could have a lateral impact across many industries, from insurance to healthcare to the military.
Businesses must start planning now. “There’s always a period when businesses have to live in the new and the old worlds at the same time,” says Rifkin. “So businesses need to be considering new business models and structures now while continuing to operate their existing models.”
He worries that many businesses will be left behind if their communications, energy, and transportation infrastructures don’t evolve. Companies that still rely on fossil fuels for powering traditional transportation and logistics could be at a major competitive disadvantage to those that have moved to the new, IoT-based energy and transportation infrastructures.
Germany, for example, has set a target of 80% renewables for gross power consumption by 2050, according to TheIndependent. If the cost advantages of renewables bear out, German businesses, which are already the world’s third-largest exporters behind China and the United States, could have a major competitive advantage.
“How would a second industrial revolution society or country compete with one that has energy at zero marginal cost and driverless vehicles?” asks Rifkin. “It can’t be done.” D!
About the Authors
Maurizio Cattaneo is Director, Delivery Execution, Energy and Natural Resources, at SAP.
Joerg Ferchow is Senior Utilities Expert and Design Thinking Coach, Digital Transformation, at SAP.
Daniel Wellers is Digital Futures Lead, Global Marketing, at SAP.
Christopher Koch is Editorial Director, SAP Center for Business Insight, at SAP.
IDC Research just released its top ten 2018 predictions, outlining why every company must operate like a digital-native enterprise. Frank Gens, IDC senior vice president and chief analyst, shared an expansive to-do list for CEOs, line-of-business and IT organizations during a webinar entitled, “IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IT Industry 2018 Predictions.” His central message was that business is rapidly entering the Cloud 2.0 phase where public cloud is the best and increasingly only platform that every company’s ecosystem will use to hyper-connect industries for accelerated digital transformation journeys with technologies like AI, machine learning, IoT, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and blockchain.
“Companies must re-architect operations around large-scale digital innovation networks, in effect becoming a new corporate species. We’re going to see a massive jump in the number of digital services and the pace of innovation. This is the ticking clock running inside the heads of CEOs in every industry, driving them quickly along digital transformation journeys,” said Gens. “Cloud everywhere for everything is what we’re likely to see over the next several years. Companies need to assess their cloud supplier’s ability to support an expanding range of use cases. If you’re not in the cloud, you’re isolated from innovation.”
These are IDC’s top ten 2018 IT predictions:
By 2021, at least 50 percent of global GDP will be digitized, with growth driven by digitally-enhanced offerings, operations and relationships. By 2020, investors will use platform/ecosystem, data value, and customer engagement metrics as valuation factors for all enterprises.
By 2020, 60 percent of all enterprises will have fully articulated an organization-wide digital transformation strategy, and will be in the process of implementing that strategy as the new IT core for competing in the digital economy.
By 2021, spend on cloud services and cloud enabling hardware, software and services doubles to over $530 billion, leveraging the diversifying cloud environment that is 20 percent at the edge, over 15 percent specialized compute, and over 90 percent multi-cloud.
By 2019, 40 percent of digital transformation initiatives will use AI services; by 2021, 75 percent of commercial enterprise apps will use AI, over 90 percent consumers interact with customer support bots, and over 50 percent of new industrial robots will leverage AI.
By 2021, enterprise apps will shift toward hyper-agile architectures, with 80 percent of application development on cloud platforms using microservices and functions, and over 95 percent of new microservices deployed in containers.
By 2020, human-digital (HD) interfaces will diversify, as 25 percent of field-service techs and over 25 percent of info-workers use AR, nearly 50 percent of new mobile apps use voice as a primary interface, and 50 percent of consumer-facing Global 2000 companies use biometric sensors to personalize experiences.
By 2021, at least 25 percent of Global 2000 companies will use blockchain services as a foundation for digital trust at scale; by 2020, 25 percent of top global transaction banks, nearly 30 percent manufacturers and retailers, and 20 percent of healthcare organizations will use blockchain networks in production.
By 2020, 90 percent of large enterprises will generate revenue from data-as-a-service, selling raw data, derived metrics, insights, and recommendations — up from nearly 50 percent in 2017.
Improvements in simple (“low-/no-code”) development tools will dramatically expand the number of non-tech developers over the next 36 months; by 2021, these non-traditional tech developers will build 20 percent of business applications and 30 percent new application features (60 percent by 2027).
By 2021, more than half of Global 2000 companies will see an average one-third of their digital services interactions come through their open API ecosystems, up from virtually zero percent in 2017, amplifying their digital reach far beyond own customer interactions.