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More Resources, More Problems

Danielle Beurteaux

This is the second of a two-part series on resource volatility. As noted in the first post, globalization has created an environment of resource volatility. This post, with numbers 11 through 20 on the list, describes resources that are more stable than the previous 10. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t turmoil, whether that’s environmental concerns in Indonesia’s palm oil production industry, or community organization for water rights in Chile. And, of course, whatever China does, the markets follow.

Top resources and trends

11. Natural Gas

According to the International Energy Agency, most natural gas comes from Russia, the United States, Canada, Qatar, and Iran, and the countries that use the most are the U.S., Russia, China, and Iran. There are sufficient reserves of natural gas, again according to the IEA’s projections, that should last past the year 2040. Liquefied natural gas, which is produced mostly by Qatar, with Australia set to overtake Malaysia for second place, has had a flat market recently. There isn’t the demand to keep up with increased production, so liquefied natural gas producers are looking for new markets, like cruise lines, to grow demand.

12. Tin

Most of the world’s tin comes from China and Indonesia. The tin market tanked last year because of less demand and lots of tin, although it did rally in July and then improve earlier this year, mostly because Indonesia is exporting less and easing the flood of tin on the market.

13. Gold

It seems like everyone’s crazy for gold right now. The precious metal is often perceived as a safer investment than other asset classes, and it’s up 20% this year. Famed investor George Soros just bought $264 million worth of shares in Barrick Gold. The Toronto-based gold-mining company is the world’s largest. Gold prices bumped down a bit while the market waited on the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, but some are saying gold will soon recover – and then some.

14. Nickel

Russia, Canada, and New Caledonia are the largest producers of nickel. Most is used to make stainless steel. Like several other commodities we’ve examined, there is more production than demand of nickel at the moment, which has led to depressed prices. China is a big consumer of nickel for stainless steel, and the country is using less because of a slowing real estate market.

15. Beef

The global demand for beef is up, but production is down due to a variety of factors. One is Australia’s decreased production due to drought conditions, which will mean 300,000 tons less beef for export this year. As Australia is a favored trading partner of the U.S., that will affect the American beef market. A recent study from Radobank predicts that China will increase live cattle imports for domestic processing, and Brazil will enter the U.S. market as well.

16. Wheat

It’s a good year for wheat. North American wheat production is doing well, although levels are down from the previous year, with five percent less planted in the U.S. and six percent less in Canada. According to the most recent USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, total U.S. wheat supplies and use are up six percent and seven percent, respectively. Globally, the report projects a two percent increase in wheat supplies, and consumption will increase, too.

17. Iron Ore

Earlier this year, the iron ore market jumped, reportedly because of the Chinese government’s moves to help along the country’s economy. Things have settled down since then, with recent trading sending the per ton price downwards 22.9% from its high in April, which seems to be due to China’s increased crude steel production and also the government’s stopping speculative trading. They’ve also committed to transportation infrastructure projects, but there is still too much iron ore compared to demand.

18. Copper

As with iron ore, China’s announcement that it would be investing in transportation infrastructure affected the price of copper recently. This is likely a welcome piece of news, as copper had been trading at the lowest levels since March 2009. Output and demand are both projected for small increases this year. Chile has the largest open pit mine and the largest global reserves of copper, but it’s been facing difficulties in recent years including lack of water, which is essential for mining, and local community resistance.

19. Palm oil

Palm oil is a global big business to the tune of $50 billion, which is projected to increase to $88 billion by 2020. It’s in almost everything these days because it’s inexpensive, stable, and can be used for many applications. (It’s not always listed on ingredient labels as palm oil).  Most is produced in Malaysia. It’s also a bête noire of environmentalists – it’s linked to deforestation, the recent massive forest fires in Indonesia which were set, it’s thought, to clear land for plantations, and lost habitat for orangutans and increased worries about their extinction.

20. Aluminum

Aluminum rose overall in 2015, but took a dive in the last few months of the year. Market-watchers are hoping that China’s announcement that it will reduce aluminum output will help energize the market once oversupply is balanced. But one of the world’s biggest producers, Alcoa, is reorganizing, which could be an indication that the company is preparing for an era of depressed prices, despite continued healthy demand.

Digital transformation is affecting different industries at different speeds and on different scales. IDC reveals how in The Internet of Things and Digital Transformation: A Tale of Four Industries.

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Live Product Innovation, Part 3: Process Industries, IoT, And A Recipe For Instant Change

John McNiff

In Part 1 of this series, we looked at how in-memory computing affects live product innovation. In Part 2, we explored the impact of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Big Data on smart connected products. In Part 3, we approach the topic from the perspective of process industries.

Digital this, connected that. Smart whatsits and intelligent doodahs. Those of us who talk about IoT are often reminded that not every manufacturer makes products per se. But IoT isn’t only about the addition of sensors to products. The principles of live product innovation are equally relevant to process manufacturing.

In fact, the “data refinery” offers the potential to manage the Internet of everything — including traditional Big Data sources in tight conjunction with business processes. If your products are food, packaged goods, or chemicals, the promises of live product insights are still compelling. It’s only the data sources and dimensions that are different.

Live and compliant

The complexity of regulatory compliance in process industries continues to grow — whether you’re talking about the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the U.K. Food Standards Agency, trade embargoes, or hazardous substance management. And compliance isn’t getting any simpler to manage across jurisdictions and industry sectors.

What’s more, customers increasingly demand shortened delivery cycles and highly targeted or even personalized products. That means you can no longer wait till after you formulate a product and release a recipe to determine whether you can actually sell it. You need instant visibility, whether you’re talking about nutritional safe levels assigned by a particular region for food products or volumes of hazardous substances for supply and transit.

But that’s the advantage of live, compliant product innovation. It enables you to perform analytics on previously disconnected data. And it allows you to manage real-time embedded processes across previously disparate systems.

Product data is everywhere

In our last blog we explored the advantages of smart connected products — the ability to link everything from initial product concepts through downstream product delivery. Now let’s apply that to process manufacturing.

Let’s say you see two factors coming together for the SoySnak product you sell in North America and Asia. Your sales data shows that American consumers want 10Kg packages, while Asian customers prefer smaller multipacks. At the same time, your compliance database alerts you that new regulations on salt levels are about to go into effect in several of your target markets.

You want to respond before the regulations are implemented, for several reasons. You’ll need to update recipes, specifications, labels, and packaging. You’ll need to inform your suppliers, manufacturers, quality planners, financial controllers, logistics providers, and retailers. And you’ll need to get the replacement product into the affected markets, with auditable compliance with salt level requirements. Otherwise, you risk producing a large quantity of unsellable inventory.

This example shows us several things:

  • Insights must be as instant as possible.
  • Those insights might come from a variety of sources that your R&D folks didn’t previously have real-time access to.
  • Your products must be localized to a very granular level.
  • Even a minor change affects everything from recipes to packaging specifications, costs of materials, regulatory reporting, logistics providers, retailers, and on and on.

And that leads us to several conclusions:

  • Product data isn’t mission-critical only to R&D. It’s linked to every downstream business process.
  • A live, compliant, and collaborative environment, with the ability to instantly adapt to change, is a business requirement.
  • To achieve that requirement, product data must be part of business processes.
  • The platform the R&D team relies on must be linked to downstream platforms, and it must allow you to leverage and act on real-time insights.

Digital product innovation platform

Of course, the streaming of sensor data from connected things is still relevant in process industries. But for process manufacturers, the most important use cases are more around traceability, supply chain logistics, and product innovation. At some point, data from connected goods will allow new models that more tightly couple the supply chain with innovation cycles.

But a live and compliant product innovation platform achievable today. The question is whether you’ll get there before your competition does.

Come to SAPPHIRE NOW 2017 in Orlando, Florida from May 16 – 18th, 2017, and check out my session “Boost Visibility into Operations for Connected Products with SAP Leonardo” on Tuesday, May 16th, 2017 from 1-1:40 p.m. in Business Application BA324, or check out our R&D sessions.

Follow the conversation on @SCMatSAP and #SAPPHIRENOW.

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John McNiff

About John McNiff

John McNiff is the Vice President of Solution Management for the R&D/Engineering line-of-business business unit at SAP. John has held a number of sales and business development roles at SAP, focused on the manufacturing and engineering topics.

How 3D Printing Could Transform The Chemical Industry

Stefan Guertzgen

The history of 3D printing started 30 years ago with Chuck Hull, the Thomas Edison of the 3D printing industry, who introduced the first 3D printer. Since then, 3D printing (also known as additive manufacturing) has been used to create everything from food and other consumer goods to automotive and airplane parts.

Key drivers of adoption

The tremendous growth of 3D printing has been driven by three key factors. First, the cost is rapidly decreasing due to lower raw material costs, stronger competitive pressures, and technological advancements. Second, printing speeds are increasing. For example, last year, startup company Carbon3D printed a palm-sized geodesic sphere in a little more than 6 minutes, which is 25 to 100 times faster than traditional 3D printing solutions. Third, new 3D printers are able to accommodate a wider variety of materials. Driven by innovations within the chemical industry, a broad range of polymers, resins, plasticizers, and other materials are being used to create new 3D products.

While it’s difficult to predict the long-term impact 3D printing will have on the overall economy, it is safe to say that the it could affect almost every industry and the way companies do business. In fact, the chemical industry has already implemented 3D applications in the areas of research and development (R&D) and manufacturing.

Innovative feedstocks and processes

3D printing provides a vast opportunity for the chemical industry to develop innovative feedstock and drive new revenue streams. While more than 3,000 materials are used in conventional component manufacturing, only about 30 are available for 3D printing. To put this into perspective, the market for chemical powder materials is predicted to be more than $630 million annually by 2020.

Plastics and resins, as well as metal powders and ceramic materials, are already in use or under evaluation for printing prototypes, parts of industry assets, or semi-finished goods—particularly those that are complex to produce and that require small batch sizes. Developing the right formulas to create these new materials offers an opportunity for constant innovation within the chemical field, which will likely produce even more materials in the future. For example, Covestro, a developer of polymer technology, is developing a range of filaments, powders, and liquid resins for all common 3D printing methods; 3M, working with its subsidiary Dyneon, recently filed a patent for using fluorinated polymers in 3D printing; and Wacker is testing 3D printing with silicones.

The chemical industry is also in the driver’s seat when it comes to process development. About 20 different processes now exist that share one common characteristic: layered deposition of printer feed. The final product could be generated from melting thermoplastic resins (for example, laser sinter technology or fused deposition modeling) or via (photo) chemical reaction such as stereo-lithography or multi-jet modeling. For both process types, the physical and chemical properties of feed materials are critical success factors for processing and for the quality of the finished product.

New tools and techniques in R&D and operations

Typically, the laboratory equipment used to do chemical synthesis is expensive and complex to use, and it often represents an obstacle in the research progress. With 3D printing, it is now possible to create reliable, robust miniaturized fluidic reactors as “micro-platforms” for organic chemical syntheses and materials processes, printed in few hours with inexpensive materials. Such micro-reactors allow building up target molecules via multi-step synthesis as well as breaking down molecular structures and detecting the building blocks through reagents which could be embedded during the 3D printing process.

Micro-reactors can also be used as small prototypes to simulate manufacturing processes.

In addition to printing equipment used in laboratories, some chemical manufacturers are using 3D printers for maintenance on process plant assets. For example, when an asset fails because of a damaged engine valve, the replacement part can be printed on site and installed in real time. Creating spare parts in-house can significantly reduce inventory costs and wait time for deliveries, hence contributing to increase overall asset uptime.

For companies that do not want to print the parts themselves, an on-demand manufacturing network is available that will print and deliver parts as needed. UPS has introduced a fully distributed manufacturing platform that connects many of its stores with 3D printers. When needed, UPS and its partners print and deliver requested parts to customers.

Commercial benefits

Across all industries, 3D printing promises to reduce costs across the supply chain. For example, the ability to print spare parts on demand can save money through improved asset uptime and more efficient workforce management. 3D printing also helps control costs with reduced waste and a smaller carbon footprint. In contrast to traditional “subtractive” manufacturing techniques in which raw material is removed, 3D printing is an additive process that uses only the amount of material that is needed. This can save significant amounts of raw materials. In the aerospace industry, for example, Airbus estimates 3D printing could reduce its raw material costs by up to 90 percent.

From a manufacturing perspective, 3D printing can streamline processes, accelerate design cycles, and add agility to operations. Printing prototypes on site speeds the R&D development cycle and shortens time to market. Researchers can make, test, and finalize prototypes in days instead of weeks. Also, the ability to print parts or equipment on demand will eliminate expensive inventory holding costs and restocking order requirements and free up floor space for other purposes. In the U.S. alone, manufacturers and trade inventories for all industries were estimated at $1.8 trillion in August 2016, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Reducing inventory by just 2 percent would be a $36 billion savings.

Barriers to adoption

As with most new technology, barriers must be overcome for this potential to fully be realized. One much-discussed but unresolved issue is intellectual property protection. Similar to the way digital music is shared, 3D printable digital blueprints could be shared illegally and/or unknowingly either within a company or by outside hackers.

In addition to digital files, users can print molds from scanned objects and use them to mass-produce exact replicas that are protected under copyright, trademark, and patent laws. This problem will continue to grow as companies move to an on-demand manufacturing network, requiring digital blueprints to be shared with independent fabricators. This poses a huge threat on companies losing billions of dollars every year in intellectual property globally.

Regulatory issues are slowing the adoption of 3D printer applications. This is especially applicable in the medical and pharmaceutical industries but has potential impact in many markets. For example, globally regulating what individuals will create with access to the Internet and a 3D chemical printer will be difficult. Also, as 3D printing drives small and customer-specific lot sizes, it will likely spur an explosion of proprietary bills of material and recipes, which will be hard to track and control under REACH or REACH-like regulations. Because this is a new frontier, many regulatory issues must be addressed.

In addition to legal and regulatory challenges, the industry has a long way to go in reliably reproducing high-quality products. Until 3D printing can match the speed and quality output requirements of conventional manufacturing processes, it will likely be reserved for prototypes or small-sized lots.

3D printing: a new frontier

While 3D printing has not reached the point of use for large-scale production or to consistently make custom products, ongoing innovations drive high demand. 3D printer market forecasts estimate that shipments of industrial 3D printers will grow by ~400% through 2021 to a value of about $26 billion. Global inventory value is estimated to be over $10 trillion. Reducing global inventory by just 5% would free up $500 billion in capital. Manufacturing overall is estimated to contribute ~16% to the global economy. If 3D printing just would capture 5% of this $12.8 trillion market, it would create a $640 billion+ opportunity.

3D printing will initially help chemical companies increase profitability by lowering costs and improving operational efficiency. However, the industry-changing opportunity is the chance to develop new feeds and formulations. The most successful chemical companies of the future will be the ones with the vision to begin developing and implementing 3D printing solutions today.

Learn more about SAPPHIRE NOW and secure your spot today!

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About Stefan Guertzgen

Dr. Stefan Guertzgen is the Global Director of Industry Solution Marketing for Chemicals at SAP. He is responsible for driving Industry Thought Leadership, Positioning & Messaging and strategic Portfolio Decisions for Chemicals.

The Future of Cybersecurity: Trust as Competitive Advantage

Justin Somaini and Dan Wellers

 

The cost of data breaches will reach US$2.1 trillion globally by 2019—nearly four times the cost in 2015.

Cyberattacks could cost up to $90 trillion in net global economic benefits by 2030 if cybersecurity doesn’t keep pace with growing threat levels.

Cyber insurance premiums could increase tenfold to $20 billion annually by 2025.

Cyberattacks are one of the top 10 global risks of highest concern for the next decade.


Companies are collaborating with a wider network of partners, embracing distributed systems, and meeting new demands for 24/7 operations.

But the bad guys are sharing intelligence, harnessing emerging technologies, and working round the clock as well—and companies are giving them plenty of weaknesses to exploit.

  • 33% of companies today are prepared to prevent a worst-case attack.
  • 25% treat cyber risk as a significant corporate risk.
  • 80% fail to assess their customers and suppliers for cyber risk.

The ROI of Zero Trust

Perimeter security will not be enough. As interconnectivity increases so will the adoption of zero-trust networks, which place controls around data assets and increases visibility into how they are used across the digital ecosystem.


A Layered Approach

Companies that embrace trust as a competitive advantage will build robust security on three core tenets:

  • Prevention: Evolving defensive strategies from security policies and educational approaches to access controls
  • Detection: Deploying effective systems for the timely detection and notification of intrusions
  • Reaction: Implementing incident response plans similar to those for other disaster recovery scenarios

They’ll build security into their digital ecosystems at three levels:

  1. Secure products. Security in all applications to protect data and transactions
  2. Secure operations. Hardened systems, patch management, security monitoring, end-to-end incident handling, and a comprehensive cloud-operations security framework
  3. Secure companies. A security-aware workforce, end-to-end physical security, and a thorough business continuity framework

Against Digital Armageddon

Experts warn that the worst-case scenario is a state of perpetual cybercrime and cyber warfare, vulnerable critical infrastructure, and trillions of dollars in losses. A collaborative approach will be critical to combatting this persistent global threat with implications not just for corporate and personal data but also strategy, supply chains, products, and physical operations.


Download the executive brief The Future of Cybersecurity: Trust as Competitive Advantage.


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How Digital Transformation Is Rewriting Business Models

Ginger Shimp

Everybody knows someone who has a stack of 3½-inch floppies in a desk drawer “just in case we may need them someday.” While that might be amusing, the truth is that relatively few people are confident that they’re making satisfactory progress on their digital journey. The boundaries between the digital and physical worlds continue to blur — with profound implications for the way we do business. Virtually every industry and every enterprise feels the effects of this ongoing digital transformation, whether from its own initiative or due to pressure from competitors.

What is digital transformation? It’s the wholesale reimagining and reinvention of how businesses operate, enabled by today’s advanced technology. Businesses have always changed with the times, but the confluence of technologies such as mobile, cloud, social, and Big Data analytics has accelerated the pace at which today’s businesses are evolving — and the degree to which they transform the way they innovate, operate, and serve customers.

The process of digital transformation began decades ago. Think back to how word processing fundamentally changed the way we write, or how email transformed the way we communicate. However, the scale of transformation currently underway is drastically more significant, with dramatically higher stakes. For some businesses, digital transformation is a disruptive force that leaves them playing catch-up. For others, it opens to door to unparalleled opportunities.

Upending traditional business models

To understand how the businesses that embrace digital transformation can ultimately benefit, it helps to look at the changes in business models currently in process.

Some of the more prominent examples include:

  • A focus on outcome-based models — Open the door to business value to customers as determined by the outcome or impact on the customer’s business.
  • Expansion into new industries and markets — Extend the business’ reach virtually anywhere — beyond strictly defined customer demographics, physical locations, and traditional market segments.
  • Pervasive digitization of products and services — Accelerate the way products and services are conceived, designed, and delivered with no barriers between customers and the businesses that serve them.
  • Ecosystem competition — Create a more compelling value proposition in new markets through connections with other companies to enhance the value available to the customer.
  • Access a shared economy — Realize more value from underutilized sources by extending access to other business entities and customers — with the ability to access the resources of others.
  • Realize value from digital platforms — Monetize the inherent, previously untapped value of customer relationships to improve customer experiences, collaborate more effectively with partners, and drive ongoing innovation in products and services,

In other words, the time-tested assumptions about how to identify customers, develop and market products and services, and manage organizations may no longer apply. Every aspect of business operations — from forecasting demand to sourcing materials to recruiting and training staff to balancing the books — is subject to this wave of reinvention.

The question is not if, but when

These new models aren’t predictions of what could happen. They’re already realities for innovative, fast-moving companies across the globe. In this environment, playing the role of late adopter can put a business at a serious disadvantage. Ready or not, digital transformation is coming — and it’s coming fast.

Is your company ready for this sea of change in business models? At SAP, we’ve helped thousands of organizations embrace digital transformation — and turn the threat of disruption into new opportunities for innovation and growth. We’d relish the opportunity to do the same for you. Our Digital Readiness Assessment can help you see where you are in the journey and map out the next steps you’ll need to take.

Up next I’ll discuss the impact of digital transformation on processes and work. Until then, you can read more on how digital transformation is impacting your industry.

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About Ginger Shimp

With more than 20 years’ experience in marketing, Ginger Shimp has been with SAP since 2004. She has won numerous awards and honors at SAP, including being designated “Top Talent” for two consecutive years. Not only is she a Professional Certified Marketer with the American Marketing Association, but she's also earned her Connoisseur's Certificate in California Reds from the Chicago Wine School. She holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from the University of San Francisco, and an MBA in marketing and managerial economics from the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University. Personally, Ginger is the proud mother of a precocious son and happy wife of one of YouTube's 10 EDU Gurus, Ed Shimp.