How Does Globalization Affect Resources?

Danielle Beurteaux

How do our global and very interconnected markets effect resource volatility?

The evidence points to increasing resource volatility as globalization grows, including in agricultural products. “The globalized world increases the pressure on resources, making even basic food volatile, and especially increasing the pressure on energy and metals,” says Kai Goerlich, SAP’s Idea Director, who led the research.

This research is based on World Bank data and converted into 2010 U.S. dollars for consistency. This is part one of a two-part series.

Top 10 resources and trends

1. Cotton

The top cotton-producing countries are India, China, and the U.S.

The cotton world had a bit of a shock last year when news came out that China was about to unload its massive cotton reserves, which sent prices down. But China didn’t actually flood the cotton market, and cotton production has also decreased somewhat, both of which reversed the price decrease.

The USDA also reports that production levels have recently decreased, particularly in West Africa. Demand from Pakistan increased because its own crop was damaged by pests – good news for India, which increased exports to Pakistan to make up the shortfall.

2. Maize

Maize, aka corn, makes up about a third of global cereal production, according to the World Bank. Maize production has increased over the past 20-odd years, mostly due to its increase as a crop in Asia. The Asian, Canadian, and Australian markets have had an effect on the U.S. Notwithstanding that areas of America’s Midwest are still known as the “breadbasket,” U.S. maize production is actually on a downward trend. It will be interesting to see if the Trans-Pacific Partnership, once (or if) signed will change that development.

3. Platinum

Platinum might be known to consumers mostly for jewelry, but the primary market for this metal is automotive. The majority of platinum comes from South Africa; Russia is the second largest producer. The World Platinum Investment Council is predicting that the metal’s market deficit will decrease this year because of the increased availability of recycled metals and less demand. However, others think the deficit is permanent and predict that platinum will return to its historical price above gold. Much of this depends on demand from global industry, particularly in China.

Here’s an example of the global nature of resources: South African mine workers’ union contracts expire in June. Labor disruptions would, obviously, affect the availability and price of platinum worldwide.

4. Crude oil

It was only recently that the price for crude oil fell yet again due to high inventories, global output, and less demand. What a difference a raging fire can make. The fire in Fort McMurray, Alberta, which began on May 1, has forced the evacuation of the town and the major oil producers have halted or shut down production. This sent crude oil prices back up to almost $50 a barrel, from $26 earlier in the year. Canada is the U.S.’s major supplier of oil.

5. Sawnwood

As with other wood products, there has been an increase in sawnwood production and demand recently, the biggest since the economic downturn post-2008, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. There has been an increase in production in some European countries, in part because of recent wind storms that knocked down trees. Also, Europe is slowly reforesting, most dramatically in Ireland with a 52% increase in forested lands.

6. Lead

Lead is a valuable ore that is relatively simple to mine and has a high value, with a global market of approximately $15 billion. While production has slowed somewhat, it’s interesting to note that what’s referred to as the “secondary production,” which includes recyclables, is now almost at par with mined lead. In the U.S., most lead production comes from secondary production, and most of it is used for lead-acid batteries. And even though global stocks and production are decreasing, the price per ton is, too. One reason for that is the search and adoption of alternatives that are more environmentally friendly.

7. Sorghum

Sorghum is grain used mostly for livestock feed and ethanol products. The U.S. is the biggest sorghum producer, followed by Mexico and Nigeria.  Its benefits are that it’s relatively drought- and disease-resistant. But that hasn’t stopped the global sorghum market from experiencing a downturn in demand, driven mostly by China for animal feed. China was responsible for almost 80% of U.S. sorghum exports in 2014-2015. But now it looks like China’s government wants to import less and is using up some of its own stockpiles instead.

8. Sugar

A sweet tooth is about to get more expensive. There’s more sugar demand than supply for the first time in five years. This is good news for sugar producers; the price of sugar recently fell to below production cost. Weather conditions, particularly El Niño, have been a problem in decreasing sugar supply. The EU recently surveyed member states’ opinions on raising sugar supplies because the stockpile is heading to dangerous lows, with potential shortages as soon as this summer.

9. Meat and chicken

The world’s appetite for meat continues to grow. Again, China is driving consumption of chicken, sheep, and pigs, and Brazil takes the top slot for beef. Here’s some interesting data from the OECD about global meat consumption: yet again, China’s economic outlook and tastes are shaping global markets. A Chinese company recently purchased Brazil’s largest soybean producer – soybean is used as animal feed. The Australian government recently blocked the sale of a cattle station conglomerate to Dahang Australia, which is mostly controlled by the Shanghai Pengxin Group. The sale was for 2.5% of Australia’s agriculture land and 185,000 cattle.

10. Tea

It’s been a tough year for some tea producers. Assam, the state in India famed for its teas, has been affected by heavy rains and cool temperatures, which will have an negative effect on the “second flush” (second growth) teas. India is the world’s second largest tea producer (China is the largest; Kenya is third), and most of it is grown on Assam’s tea plantations. Heavy rainfalls, dry periods, and pests are all making tea growing a challenge. Tea is actually the second most popular drink worldwide – the first is water. As noted in this U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization report, tea is pretty picky about growing conditions, and there are only a few areas in the world where it grows well. Overall, tea production, exports, and consumption all grew, and the FAO predicts this trend will continue. However, climate change is a top concern of tea producers and could be the biggest challenge to established producing regions.

Industries are realizing the advantages of the Internet of Things and digital transformation at different speeds and on different scales. IDC reveals how in The Internet of Things and Digital Transformation: A Tale of Four Industries.

For more insight on digital transformation, join us at SAPPHIRE NOW and attend the session “Build Resilience into Digital Supply Networks by Using Live Business.”

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Leading In Digital Procurement: Automakers Move To Procurement 4.0

William Newman

Automotive procurement leaders are facing challenges from both inside the procurement organization and outside, as impacted by other elements of the industry business.

Inside procurement issues, such as poor spend visibility, compliance, and value delivery are amplified by the overall strategic shift to digital processes and the scarcity of talent to drive procurement initiatives successfully.

Beyond the four walls of procurement, other teams, such as engineering, supply chain, and finance, are demanding more influence over the goals and objectives of procurement as product designs become more complex and connected, the flow of “material to money” receives greater margin scrutiny, and the industry shifts to Mode 2 manufacturing models. Combine this with expected tapering of automotive vehicle unit production in North America and globally, procurement leaders are in a nexus of forces few other executives in automotive companies are experiencing.

Auto Procurement Forces

A new role for procurement leaders

As a result, procurement leaders must augment their sphere of influence to source components and material when needed, where needed, and how needed to support Mode 2 manufacturing and virtual inventory goals. These are strategic. With the shift to strategic tasks, more operational tasks in purchasing and accounts payables will go away. Those tasks will need to be replaced with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities to deliver on tomorrow’s operating model.

The question we continually ask automotive procurement leaders: are you really leveraging procurement as a strategic weapon? Often the answer is no. We see several factors determining whether automotive companies are seriously leveraging procurement capabilities strategically:

  • Risk: Risk management currently implies compliance. In the future, it will include making risk-mitigating investments and risk-transfer pricing.
  • Talent development: Talent with specific non-core skills must be found and developed. New strategies must be driven outside the current business scope, and the skills to develop these new strategies are in high demand.
  • Innovation: Procurement teams need to expand their expertise in engineering and design, as next-generation procurement strategies are being developed based on outcome-based business models, 3D printing, and connected technologies.
  • Transparency: Social media is making procurement one of the most visible functions, not a back-office activity, as in past generations. As such, automotive procurement leaders need to talk to customers, regulators, and the press with one voice on behalf of the company’s strategic, 24/7, “always on” communications strategy.
  • A new relationship with financeThe global supply base is bringing new financial challenges to procurement. Procurement leaders need to develop financial acumen that rivals that of finance leaders and tighten their relationships with finance teams.

Only by reviewing these areas can procurement leaders honestly assess whether their organizations are prepared for the shift to digital business and operating models in their everyday work lives.

An opportunity to lead

With 62% of chief procurement officers unable to locate and/or develop the talent needed to address future procurement needs and challenges (Deloitte, 2016), automotive procurement leaders are at the tip of the spear to risk losing organizational influence and become a sub-function of finance or supply chain. Given the proper best practices, methods, and new digital capabilities, however, automotive procurement leaders can have a full seat at the executive table with strategic insights, foresight, and direction to maintain healthy working capital and cost of goods sold during the upcoming years of slow but tapered automotive vehicle volumes.

Learn more about automotive procurement and other industry digital advances at the Best Practices for Automotive event September 18-20, 2017, in Detroit. For more information visit the program website.

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William Newman

About William Newman

William Newman is a Strategic Industry Advisor, providing industry perspective, strategic solution advice, and thought leadership to support SAP automotive and discrete industry customers and their co-innovation programs. He helps build and maintain SAP's leadership position in the automotive industry and associated industry segments. He manages SAP’s annual digital aftermarket survey program and serves as the ASUG Point of Contact for the NA Automotive SIG. He is the author of two SAP Press books and a LinkedIn Editor’s Choice contributor.

How 3D Printing Benefits From Chemical Industry Innovation

Stefan Guertzgen

While many people consider 3D printing a recent technology, it has actually been around for more than 30 years.

Early predictions indicated 3D printers would be in every home by now, but widespread adoption of additive manufacturing had to wait for other areas to catch up, including materials science, engineering techniques, digital transformation in the supply chain, and advances in the chemical industry.

Even when all these areas came together in support of 3D printing, the biggest driver of acceptance became the manufacturing world’s revived focus on satisfying the customer, and the chemical industry’s drive to invent innovative materials that satisfy unique customer requirements.

How materials shape manufacturing

Manufacturers have always been at the mercy of the materials available to them, and every great leap in manufacturing technology has been influenced in some way by advances in materials science. Consider the Bronze Age giving way to the Iron Age, leading through history to the Age of Electronics and high tech. In every case, advances in materials enabled engineers to design new products and production methods that took advantage of the new material.

Today we have 3D printing, which started with a few polymers and has branched out into metals, food, ceramics, and even biological materials. As a result, engineers have developed innovative ways to design parts to be lighter in weight, more resilient, or lower cost by combining the unique capabilities of 3D printers and advanced materials created by the chemical industry.

3D printing and the supply chain

3D printing is having a major impact on the design and optimization of supply chains across all industries. Today, it’s not uncommon to see airlines, utilities, and manufacturers eliminating or reducing their inventory of spare parts via 3D printing. They no longer need to stock the same parts in multiple locations to reduce down time of expensive assets such as airplanes. As a result, they have increased asset utilization and reduced cost.

In many cases, rather than manufacturing and building components to be shipped to OEMS or higher-tier manufacturers, companies now print these parts in house as needed. While the printing speed may not be able to support high-volume manufacturing yet, it is more than adequate for prototypes, short runs, and spares. In the near future, companies may outsource much of their component manufacturing to nearby “printer farms” that will fulfill their requirements. This will reduce the volume of shipments around the globe, decreasing the environmental impact of manufacturing.

More than ever, chemical companies will be the backbone of all manufacturing as they create and deliver new materials designed to take advantage of 3D printing.

3D printing and the chemical industry

The most forward-thinking chemical companies are working directly with customers and the manufacturers of 3D printers to optimize materials with the right combination of characteristics to satisfy the customer’s needs and ensure that the printers run efficiently. Examples of this level of partnership include BASF working with HP, and Farsoon and Solvay working with Reico and Arevo Labs. These companies are inventing new resins, new polymers, and powdered metals that will advance manufacturing into a new era of productivity and innovation.

For more on 3D printing and the supply chain, see The 3D-Printed Future Needs A New Supply Chain.

This story also appeared on the SAP Community.

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About Stefan Guertzgen

Dr. Stefan Guertzgen is the Global Director of Industry Solution Marketing for Chemicals at SAP. He is responsible for driving Industry Thought Leadership, Positioning & Messaging and strategic Portfolio Decisions for Chemicals.

Diving Deep Into Digital Experiences

Kai Goerlich

 

Google Cardboard VR goggles cost US$8
By 2019, immersive solutions
will be adopted in 20% of enterprise businesses
By 2025, the market for immersive hardware and software technology could be $182 billion
In 2017, Lowe’s launched
Holoroom How To VR DIY clinics

From Dipping a Toe to Fully Immersed

The first wave of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) is here,

using smartphones, glasses, and goggles to place us in the middle of 360-degree digital environments or overlay digital artifacts on the physical world. Prototypes, pilot projects, and first movers have already emerged:

  • Guiding warehouse pickers, cargo loaders, and truck drivers with AR
  • Overlaying constantly updated blueprints, measurements, and other construction data on building sites in real time with AR
  • Building 3D machine prototypes in VR for virtual testing and maintenance planning
  • Exhibiting new appliances and fixtures in a VR mockup of the customer’s home
  • Teaching medicine with AR tools that overlay diagnostics and instructions on patients’ bodies

A Vast Sea of Possibilities

Immersive technologies leapt forward in spring 2017 with the introduction of three new products:

  • Nvidia’s Project Holodeck, which generates shared photorealistic VR environments
  • A cloud-based platform for industrial AR from Lenovo New Vision AR and Wikitude
  • A workspace and headset from Meta that lets users use their hands to interact with AR artifacts

The Truly Digital Workplace

New immersive experiences won’t simply be new tools for existing tasks. They promise to create entirely new ways of working.

VR avatars that look and sound like their owners will soon be able to meet in realistic virtual meeting spaces without requiring users to leave their desks or even their homes. With enough computing power and a smart-enough AI, we could soon let VR avatars act as our proxies while we’re doing other things—and (theoretically) do it well enough that no one can tell the difference.

We’ll need a way to signal when an avatar is being human driven in real time, when it’s on autopilot, and when it’s owned by a bot.


What Is Immersion?

A completely immersive experience that’s indistinguishable from real life is impossible given the current constraints on power, throughput, and battery life.

To make current digital experiences more convincing, we’ll need interactive sensors in objects and materials, more powerful infrastructure to create realistic images, and smarter interfaces to interpret and interact with data.

When everything around us is intelligent and interactive, every environment could have an AR overlay or VR presence, with use cases ranging from gaming to firefighting.

We could see a backlash touting the superiority of the unmediated physical world—but multisensory immersive experiences that we can navigate in 360-degree space will change what we consider “real.”


Download the executive brief Diving Deep Into Digital Experiences.


Read the full article Swimming in the Immersive Digital Experience.

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Kai Goerlich

About Kai Goerlich

Kai Goerlich is the Chief Futurist at SAP Innovation Center network His specialties include Competitive Intelligence, Market Intelligence, Corporate Foresight, Trends, Futuring and ideation. Share your thoughts with Kai on Twitter @KaiGoe.heif Futu

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Jenny Dearborn: Soft Skills Will Be Essential for Future Careers

Jenny Dearborn

The Japanese culture has always shown a special reverence for its elderly. That’s why, in 1963, the government began a tradition of giving a silver dish, called a sakazuki, to each citizen who reached the age of 100 by Keiro no Hi (Respect for the Elders Day), which is celebrated on the third Monday of each September.

That first year, there were 153 recipients, according to The Japan Times. By 2016, the number had swelled to more than 65,000, and the dishes cost the already cash-strapped government more than US$2 million, Business Insider reports. Despite the country’s continued devotion to its seniors, the article continues, the government felt obliged to downgrade the finish of the dishes to silver plating to save money.

What tends to get lost in discussions about automation taking over jobs and Millennials taking over the workplace is the impact of increased longevity. In the future, people will need to be in the workforce much longer than they are today. Half of the people born in Japan today, for example, are predicted to live to 107, making their ancestors seem fragile, according to Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, professors at the London Business School and authors of The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity.

The End of the Three-Stage Career

Assuming that advances in healthcare continue, future generations in wealthier societies could be looking at careers lasting 65 or more years, rather than at the roughly 40 years for today’s 70-year-olds, write Gratton and Scott. The three-stage model of employment that dominates the global economy today—education, work, and retirement—will be blown out of the water.

It will be replaced by a new model in which people continually learn new skills and shed old ones. Consider that today’s most in-demand occupations and specialties did not exist 10 years ago, according to The Future of Jobs, a report from the World Economic Forum.

And the pace of change is only going to accelerate. Sixty-five percent of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in jobs that don’t yet exist, the report notes.

Our current educational systems are not equipped to cope with this degree of change. For example, roughly half of the subject knowledge acquired during the first year of a four-year technical degree, such as computer science, is outdated by the time students graduate, the report continues.

Skills That Transcend the Job Market

Instead of treating post-secondary education as a jumping-off point for a specific career path, we may see a switch to a shorter school career that focuses more on skills that transcend a constantly shifting job market. Today, some of these skills, such as complex problem solving and critical thinking, are taught mostly in the context of broader disciplines, such as math or the humanities.

Other competencies that will become critically important in the future are currently treated as if they come naturally or over time with maturity or experience. We receive little, if any, formal training, for example, in creativity and innovation, empathy, emotional intelligence, cross-cultural awareness, persuasion, active listening, and acceptance of change. (No wonder the self-help marketplace continues to thrive!)

The three-stage model of employment that dominates the global economy today—education, work, and retirement—will be blown out of the water.

These skills, which today are heaped together under the dismissive “soft” rubric, are going to harden up to become indispensable. They will become more important, thanks to artificial intelligence and machine learning, which will usher in an era of infinite information, rendering the concept of an expert in most of today’s job disciplines a quaint relic. As our ability to know more than those around us decreases, our need to be able to collaborate well (with both humans and machines) will help define our success in the future.

Individuals and organizations alike will have to learn how to become more flexible and ready to give up set-in-stone ideas about how businesses and careers are supposed to operate. Given the rapid advances in knowledge and attendant skills that the future will bring, we must be willing to say, repeatedly, that whatever we’ve learned to that point doesn’t apply anymore.

Careers will become more like life itself: a series of unpredictable, fluid experiences rather than a tightly scripted narrative. We need to think about the way forward and be more willing to accept change at the individual and organizational levels.

Rethink Employee Training

One way that organizations can help employees manage this shift is by rethinking training. Today, overworked and overwhelmed employees devote just 1% of their workweek to learning, according to a study by consultancy Bersin by Deloitte. Meanwhile, top business leaders such as Bill Gates and Nike founder Phil Knight spend about five hours a week reading, thinking, and experimenting, according to an article in Inc. magazine.

If organizations are to avoid high turnover costs in a world where the need for new skills is shifting constantly, they must give employees more time for learning and make training courses more relevant to the future needs of organizations and individuals, not just to their current needs.

The amount of learning required will vary by role. That’s why at SAP we’re creating learning personas for specific roles in the company and determining how many hours will be required for each. We’re also dividing up training hours into distinct topics:

  • Law: 10%. This is training required by law, such as training to prevent sexual harassment in the workplace.

  • Company: 20%. Company training includes internal policies and systems.

  • Business: 30%. Employees learn skills required for their current roles in their business units.

  • Future: 40%. This is internal, external, and employee-driven training to close critical skill gaps for jobs of the future.

In the future, we will always need to learn, grow, read, seek out knowledge and truth, and better ourselves with new skills. With the support of employers and educators, we will transform our hardwired fear of change into excitement for change.

We must be able to say to ourselves, “I’m excited to learn something new that I never thought I could do or that never seemed possible before.” D!

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